A model for emergence of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus from outbreaks with low pathogenicity avian influenza virus

نویسندگان

  • Junping Shi
  • Jianjun Paul Tian
  • Xiaojie Hou
چکیده

In this article, we establish a mathematical model for emergence of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses from outbreaks of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) A viruses (H5N2). The model is based on traditional mathematical epidemiology models and experiment evidences. It contains several submodels which are traditional SEIR models or SIR models. The experiments in [25] provide data about LPAI and HPAI virus transmission characters and evidence of double infection. Double infection means HPAI viruses can infect animals which are infected by LPAI viruses. We analyze our model and their submodels. We also carry ∗Corresponding author

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تاریخ انتشار 2009